North Korea has made an unexpected announcement in which it declared it will not be participating in the six-party talks and that it possesses nuclear weapons. The disappointment and bewilderment is all the greater because there was an amicable attitude growing, one in which it was thought the North would participate in the talks, and predictions were that it was about to announce its intention to do so. The announcement is even more concerning and regrettable because it risks shaking the fundamental security of the Korean peninsula and Northeast Asia. The North had hinted that it has nuclear arms on several occasions, but it is a new situation when the announcement is official, made in the form of a foreign ministry statement. One worries that this will give others, like Japan, an excuse to compete over nuclear arms. The six-party talks had just barely gotten on track after getting past a crucial point, but now the process is again covered in uncertainty.
The North Korean foreign ministry statement is on the outside a declaration of a cessation of dialogue but it contains several phrases that allow for complex interpretations, leading to confusion as to the North's true intentions. It claims that the six-party talks are at a stalemate because of the United States' hostile North Korea policy and says it will not participate in the talks until the sufficient conditions and atmosphere have been formed. It argues that it manufactured nuclear weapons for self-defense, to stand against the Bush Administration's increasing policy of isolation and pressure, but that there is no change in its goal of a nuclear-free Korean peninsula. The North is blaming the current face-off on US hostile policy towards it, and saying that policy has to change for it to engage in dialogue.
This is why some observers are saying the North has determined that if it comes to the six-party talks it will be forced around by American unilateral demands for concessions and the group pressure of countries that share the US position. In other words, the North is using "brinkmanship tactics" that draw a line in the sand and bring the situation to a whole new level out of a willingness to accept the risks in order to get reliable guarantees of non-aggression and economic support in exchange for giving up its nukes. In its declaration you can see hints of an attempt to establish the fact that it possesses nuclear arms at a time when there was a peaceful mood, one in which there were cautious predictions that the six-party talks would be restarted, in order to minimize the danger of doing so. The North has long expressed suspicion that the US is using an unsubstantial series of talks to drag things on and sent it into ruin. North Korea's deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Han Song Ryol, says the North will "see it as a sign of changed policy if the US says it will talk to us directly," and in his comments you can read a desire to have dialogue instead of disruption.
Such being the situation, we need to be looking at the matter calmly and reacting cautiously instead of just scolding the North for its recklessness. For starters, we need to engage in concentrated diplomatic effort to make sure hardliners within the US administration do not gain more of a voice and rise to influence. While in Washington meeting with American officials responsible for Korean matters, foreign minister Ban Ki Moon needs to explain the nature of the North Korean nuclear issue and encourage a profoundly changed and productive North Korea policy. He must advise that substantial results should be achieved through mutual compromise. Naturally, the North must be persuaded, through China, to avoid going down a one-way path. If the situation unfolds in the wrong direction and there are calls for sanctions or an economic blockade, both China and South Korea will be put in a difficult position.
The need for intra-Korean dialogue has become more urgent than before. The break off in intra-Korean dialogue has meant decisive shortcomings in dealing with situations like these. By depending on outside parties such as the US and China, we have been unable to speak our minds amongst Koreans and create a way to achieve agreement. We hope the government gives serious consideration to sending a special envoy to Pyongyang to engage in frank discussion about the future of the Korean nation at this critical crossroad in the history of the Korean people.
What happens from here on in will be really important. The North Korean nuclear issue is at a dead-end climax. The question of whether it is resolved through diplomatic effort that sets the stage for a grand peaceful solution or whether it escalates into a grand explosion wanted by no one will soon be decided. The fate of the Korean people hangs in the balance. We pray for peace on the Korean peninsula with ardent heart, and the mood must be made to head in that direction.
The Hankyoreh, 12 February 2005.
[Translations by Seoul Selection (PMS)]
[Editorial] Make the Mood Make for Peace on the Peninsula |
